Getting denied a payrise.

Good morning AusCorp. Hope we all enjoyed the long weekend, and just a reminder that it’s perfectly okay if you used that time to do absolutely nothing. This morning’s newsletter should give you enough to deflect to when you get asked how your weekend was for the 20th time.

In this week's edition, we're unpacking why "no budget" is a cop-out excuse when negotiating pay, how KPMG partners are quitting as senators push for a ban on government work, and since ChatGPT launched, employment in highly AI-exposed Australian jobs is down 9%.

AUSCORP STRESS INDEX

The Pulse eased slightly this week, though barely enough to feel it. Rate cut forecasts from CBA, the RBA speaking carefully about the outlook, and the government putting its best face on. Everything seems to be in this weird stasis between cautious optimism and low-grade scepticism. Job postings on both major platforms are holding in positive territory, it’s all quiet on the layoff front, and market volatility is subdued despite the trade noise coming out of the US. Flexible work seems to still be on the table for most as we head into EOFY. The market is waiting, professionals included, to see whether the rate cut cycle will arrive and whether that changes what employers are willing to offer.

THE BIG CONVERSATION

"No budget" is almost always a deflection

You ask for more money. They tell you there's no budget. Then the company announces record profits later that month. That conversation happens in every company, every year, and it’s all smoke and mirrors. The money was there. You just weren't expensive enough to lose yet.

Most of us think you just need to be ready with rebuttals but it’s never that simple. Internal promotions are the worst for this. Companies will hand you a title bump with a number $30K below band because they're betting you won't quit when they go and pay an external hire 15% more. This is why it’s always important to know what the market is paying for your role elsewhere, and being willing to leave if your company doesn’t budge definitely helps.

Telling yourself to "back yourself" isn’t going to cut it when you have a mortgage sitting at $700K and knowing that you’ve accidentally pigeon-holed yourself into a position where there’s only 3 roles in the country that match your experience. Some people can push hard and absorb the risk of it going sideways. Most people need the job more than the job needs them, and no amount of preparation changes that equation.

Pay gaps don't usually survive because companies lack the data. They survive because the data sits on one side of the table. Your employer knows the band and you’re often just guessing. The companies that pay fairly are the ones that have published bands, regular audits and managers who don't try to ignore your contribution.

That's not most companies though. So until your employer decides to be transparent about it, the closest thing you've got is talking to the people around you. The pay secrecy era is legally over in Australia, but whether it's culturally over in your office is a different question.

2026 AUSCORP SALARY SURVEY

This is our biggest survey yet and the more people who contribute, the harder it gets for anyone to be underpaid without knowing it. Anonymous, takes 2 minutes and the results go straight back to the community.

PICK & SCROLL BY THE AUSSIE CORPORATE | LAST WEEK’S TOP PICKS

• Optus topped Roy Morgan's quarterly distrust rankings, ahead of Facebook/Meta, Temu, Woolworths and Coles - telcos remain the most distrusted industry overall, followed by social media platforms and mining. LINK

• Since ChatGPT’s 2022 release, employment and hours in highly AI-exposed Australian jobs are about 9% lower, while 42% of businesses already use AI. LINK

• Wesfarmers is launching K Home, a standalone Anko-branded homeware store to take on IKEA. LINK

• KPMG is facing deepening turmoil as partners quit, senators urge a ban on government work and a defence unit sale for $1 plus $200M in entitlements looms. LINK

• Corporate leaders are increasingly treating AI as a scarce resource as complex agentic models drive exponential token usage and soaring costs without guaranteed productivity gains. LINK

Flat White lands every week. The news doesn't. Every weekday morning at 8:00am, we send you everything that happened across Australian business and corporate news in a 2-minute read. Same team. Same voice. Just daily.

THE INSIDE TRACK

TOGETHER WITH SHARESIGHT

Tax time is four weeks away and your investment records are probably scattered across multiple apps, a spreadsheet you last updated in February, and a vague memory of a dividend you reinvested at some point.

Sharesight brings your Australian and international stocks, ETFs, crypto and managed funds into one place, tracking your performance, dividends and capital gains automatically. When you go to see your accountant next month, don’t forget we told you so!

THREAD OF THE WEEK - r/AUSCORP

Meeting room etiquette with Execs?

Today I had a meeting at 1pm where I had to present to like 20 people so I booked a meeting room. I get to the meeting room at 12.58 and see a group sitting in the room, some executives from my department but not direct line. They’ve saw me. No dramas, I’ll wait. 1pm hits, I click to check in and they get notification on the screen.. no obvious movements.

Read the thread →

THE BRAINS TRUST

Your borrowing power for an investment property just shrank by up to 25% and you didn't change anything. The budget's negative gearing and CGT changes reduced the return on a typical housing investment by enough that Morgan Stanley estimates investors would need prices to fall 15-20% just to restore the same economics they had before budget night.

Morgan Stanley is now forecasting a 5-10% national house price decline over 2026/27, calling it one of the largest adjustments in 40 years. It's already happening: Sydney fell 0.9% in May, Melbourne fell 0.8%, and the national auction clearance rate has dropped below 50% for the first time in 6 years. Perth is still running at +25.8% year-on-year, with the investor-heavy east coast leading the downturn while resource-driven markets are yet to feel it.

The cruel twist is for renters who think falling prices mean they can finally buy. Vacancy rates are sitting at 1.5%, near a record low and half the long-run average. Asking rents are up 6% year-on-year and UBS says that pressure is feeding straight into CPI figures ahead. So prices are dropping but your borrowing power dropped faster, and while you wait the rent keeps climbing. You’re actually getting squeezed from both sides.

The flow-on is already hitting the banks. Housing loan growth is forecast to halve from roughly 6% to 3% in FY27. When turnover falls 20-30% alongside a 5-10% price decline, the consumer spending that follows moves with it. Big-ticket electronics, renovations, appliances and outdoor categories will soon face weaker demand.

OFF THE CLOCK

EATING
Sneaker Laundry giving away free coffee on the 11th

Free coffee and iced drinks at all Sneaker Laundry Lab stores Australia-wide. LINK

WATCHING
The horror movie that cost US$1M to make but netted US$225M at box office

Obsession is the highest-grossing sub-million-dollar production in nearly three decades with the previous benchmark in that category held by Paranormal Activity. LINK

READING
Australian unis are slipping down the global rankings

Worth reading if you have kids heading towards campus, or just feel vaguely protective of your own degree's resale value. LINK

WEARING
High-waisted trousers are back and making sense

SUK Workwear's Station Pants at $110 are a reasonable entry point into the silhouette for anyone who has been quietly waiting for skinny trousers to stop being the default. LINK

AUSCORP EVENTS

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July

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July/August

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ODD PICKS FROM LAST WEEK

• If you answer the phone with this word, Gen-Z think you are old. LINK

• Is hyaluronic acid all hype? We look at the science. LINK

• Autism may have two biologically distinct subtypes. LINK

• A third patient got a Neuralink brain implant. The work is part of a booming field. LINK

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