The pipeline for junior roles are thinning

Good morning AusCorp. Woolworths says 44% of its customers are under real budget pressure and Coles says 32% of shoppers are combining errands just to spend less on fuel.

In this week's edition, we're asking whether dads should take parental leave (the answer is obvious but the career risk apparently isn't), how the pipeline for junior talent is being hollowed out and why tonight's budget is expected to scrap negative gearing on existing properties in the biggest housing policy shift in a generation.

Plus more than 8 million people in Australia now access income support, Australian banks have assembled a blacklist of mortgage brokers and vacancy rates nationally are at 1.6%, less than half the pre-pandemic norm.

AUSCORP STRESS INDEX

The RBA hiked rates again with Michele Bullock telling Australians they are poorer and there is no way out of it, and Woolworths says 44% of its customers are under real budget pressure. Meanwhile, Coles says 32% of shoppers are combining errands to spend less on fuel, vacancy rates nationally are at 1.6%, less than half the pre-pandemic norm and rents are up 5.7% in a year. Established employers in professional services and banking are still hiring, but the tech-adjacent and entry-level pipeline is being squeezed on the back of AI automation. For anyone mid-career in a Big 4 or top-tier firm, your own role isn’t at risk - it's that the graduate and junior cohort behind you is thinning, and that structural gap will land on senior workloads before it ever shows up in headcount numbers.

THE BIG CONVERSATION

Should dads take parental leave? The answer is obvious but the career risk isn't.

Taking parental leave as a dad is the best thing you can do. For your partner, your child and yourself. Multiple people said they'd judge someone who chose not to take their leave, and the majority of firms now actively encourage it. If you're weighing up your career against time with your newborn, your priorities probably need recalibrating.

In client-facing roles, extended leave can mean losing relationships you spent years building. In small teams, the work piles onto everyone else and the resentment builds before you're back. Some people described being quietly sidelined on return or passed over for projects they'd led. The stigma is structural, and the experience you have depends almost entirely on your direct leader, not the company policy.

What about the double standard? Our parental leave survey showed 18% of respondents saying leave clearly damaged their career, and the vast majority of those were women. Dads taking leave is a step toward fixing that imbalance, but the frustration is justified - men get praised for doing what women have been penalised for doing quietly for decades.

You can't get this time back. Take the leave. But have the conversation with your manager before you go, not after you're back. The right leader will support you regardless. The wrong one will make it difficult no matter what the policy says.

PICK & SCROLL BY THE AUSSIE CORPORATE

Flat White lands every week. The news doesn't. While you were looking forward to the weekend, the net wealth of Australia's richest households jumped 24% and Australia's budget is tracking $11.4B better than forecast this financial year.

If you missed any of that, we’ll keep you in the loop even if you live under a rock.

Every weekday morning at 8:00am, we send you everything that happened across Australian business and corporate news in a 2-minute read. Same team. Same voice. Just daily.

TOP PICKS FROM LAST WEEK

• Australian banks have assembled a blacklist of mortgage brokers, many of Chinese background. LINK

• Claude Mythos Preview can find software flaws and chain them into working attacks faster than any tool before it and Anthropic won't release it publicly. LINK

• House values in some suburbs have risen the most over the past 12 months as new property data highlights uneven growth across the housing market. LINK

• Australia has sharply tightened its student visa regime as offshore refusal rates hit 32.5% in February 2026, disproportionately affecting South Asian applicants and unsettling a $55B export education sector. LINK

• More than 8M people in Australia now access income support. That's 2M more than a decade ago. Mental illness health accounts for roughly one-third of claims across the country's major income support schemes. LINK 

THE INSIDE TRACK

THREAD OF THE WEEK - r/AUSCORP

Made redundant. Not getting leads. What did you do after redundancy and how long did it take to land a job?

Anyone got made redundant and later found jobs in the last 1-2 years? I am trying to understand if I should do something differently. Due to circumstance, I am the only person working in my household but I do have maybe 6 months runway. Any advice or support is very much welcomed.

Six months of runway id not a crisis. If you can afford to, use it to hold out for a role worth taking rather than panic-applying downward, because the market will eventually move and a lateral or near-lateral offer is more likely than nothing.

Read the thread →

THE ECONOMIC SCOOP | FEDERAL BUDGET PREVIEW

Tonight’s budget is expected to scrap negative gearing on existing properties and replace the 50% capital gains tax discount with an inflation-adjusted model. If you own an investment property, rent one, or are trying to buy your first home, this is the most significant housing policy shift in a generation.

Properties bought after budget night can still be negatively geared but only if they're new builds. The CGT discount reverts to a pre-1999 model where you're taxed on the real gain after adjusting for inflation rather than getting an automatic 50% off. Existing investments are partially grandfathered. Economists estimate the combined changes will push house prices down 3-4%, roughly the equivalent of one additional rate hike. Sydney and Melbourne prices are already falling.

Elsewhere in the budget, the NDIS is being cut by $35 billion over 4 years with 300,000 people removed from the scheme. There's a $5-a-week tax cut from July, a one-off $300 payment at tax time next year, a $1,000 instant deduction without receipts, EV novated lease discounts rolled back above $75,000, a minimum 30% tax on family trust distributions, and gross debt hitting $1 trillion for the first time. Defence spending goes up $53 billion over a decade.

OFF THE CLOCK

WATCHING
Zach Galifianakis has a gardening show now

Netflix's The Backyard is exactly what it sounds like, and somehow that is enough. LINK

EATING
Where to get a full meal in Sydney for under $10

One of the few places you’ll find that fills your belly and doesn’t break the bank. LINK

READING
The Airbnb sublet situation in Sydney

Someone in Millers Point is leasing dozens of properties through Airbnb, which is either entrepreneurial or a reasonable explanation for why you cannot find a flat. LINK

WEARING
The cotton T-shirt question, answered

A surprisingly thorough community verdict on which 100% cotton T-shirt actually holds its shape after a wash, which turns out to be the kind of research nobody does at work but everyone benefits from. LINK

GOING
Melbourne Central's cinema just got a serious upgrade

HOYTS has installed a large-format LED screen at Melbourne Central, which at minimum gives you a legitimate reason to leave the office at a reasonable hour. LINK

AUSCORP EVENTS

SPORTS
The Aussie Corporate x Kraken x Sneaker Laundry | Melbourne | Free Matcha
Thursday 28th May 7AM

• Morning Run + Free Matcha HERE

SPORTS / SOCIAL
AusCorp Pickleball After Hours | 👀 Coming Soon
Early June

SPORTS / SOCIAL
AusCorp Singles Event | 👀 Coming Soon
June/July

ODD PICKS FROM LAST WEEK

• The Enhanced Games are nearly here, with the event starting on May 21st. LINK

• The Met Gala, one of fashions most popular and pricey events, took place last week. LINK 

• Is peeing 'just in case' bad for you? LINK 

• North Korea has quietly removed the goal of reunification from its constitution. LINK 

• Is a low-salt diet as unhealthy as having too much? LINK

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